Q4’24 Economic Outlook: Analysts Forecast Average Growth Of 3.27% Year End

The Nigerian economy is projected to maintain stable growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by resilience in the non-oil sector despite headwinds in oil production.

According to forecasts released by a team of analysts at Cordros Research, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.47 per cent year-onyear (y/y), mirroring the 3.46 per cent recorded in Q3-24.

This trajectory underscores a steady recovery, setting the stage for an annual average growth of 3.27 per cent in 2024, a marked improvement over 2.71 per cent in 2023.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its quarterly report on Monday showing remarkable improvement in economic growth largely driven by Services industry, a subsector of the non-oil sector, contributing a robust 53.58 per cent to overall growth.

The Services subsector expanded by +5.19 per cent year-on-year as against +3.79 per cent in corresponding period in 2023. Cordros Research analysts said the GDP growth by year end is poised for robust performance, with agriculture, manufacturing, and services spearheading growth.

According to them, the October-to-December harvest season is expected to boost agricultural output significantly compared to the previous quarter.

The analysts expect seasonal yuletide demand to energise manufacturing but noted that high production costs and constrained financial conditions could temper this momentum.

Reviewing the services sector, the analysts see sustained growth of the telecommunications industry fueled by subscriber growth and innovative business models. “Additionally, the financial services sector remains a linchpin of economic resilience.

Banks are ramping up loan disbursements to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) loan-to-deposit ratio requirement, further supporting non-oil sector expansion.

“Overall, the non-oil sector is projected to grow by 3.57 per cent y/y in Q4-24, exceeding the 3.37 per cent recorded in Q3-24 and 3.00 per cent in Q4-23,” the Cordros analysts wrote in an emailed note on Monday.