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Nigeria’s economy demonstrated robust resilience in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, with real gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 3.46 per cent year-on-year (y/y), outperforming analysts’ forecast.
Bloomberg analysts had projected a median consensus growth of 2.86 per cent while analysts at Lagos based Cordros’ Research expected GDP growth of 2.96 per cent.
However, the GDP growth report published on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed remarkable improvement from the 3.19 per cent y/y growth recorded in the preceding quarter, underscoring the nation’s steady recovery trajectory Breaking down the GDP by sectors, the Services industry led the growth with a robust 5.19 per cent y/y expansion (Q2-2024: +3.79% y/y), contributing a dominant 53.58 per cent to overall output.
Similarly, the oil sector exhibited a notable turnaround, growing by 5.17 per cent y/y in Q3-2024, a stark contrast to the contraction of 0.85 per cent y/y seen in Q3-2023. Crude oil production averaged 1.47 million barrels per day (mb/d), representing a 4.3 per cent uptick from Q2-2024’s output of 1.41mb/d.
Despite this recovery, the oil sector’s contribution to GDP slightly declined to 5.57 per cent, compared to 5.70 per cent in the previous quarter. The non-oil sector remained the cornerstone of economic growth, expanding by 3.37 per cent y/y, an improvement from the 2.80 per cent growth recorded in Q2-2024.
This sector accounted for a commanding 94.43 per cent of total GDP during the period, reflecting its pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic structure.
Meanwhile, Agriculture decelerated to a growth rate of 1.14 per cent y/y (Q2-2024: +1.41% y/y), representing 28.65 per cent of GDP, and the Industrial sector moderated to 2.18 per cent y/y (Q2-2024: +3.53% y/y), accounting for 17.77 per cent of total output.
The stronger-than-expected GDP performance highlights Nigeria’s resilience amid external and domestic challenges. With sustained momentum in the non-oil sector and a recovering oil industry, the economy is poised for continued growth, though structural reforms and policy measures will be critical to consolidating these gains.
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