Edo Guber: Brothers Go To War

FELIX NWANERI writes that the stage is set for the governorship election in Edo State as former political allies square against each other in tomorrow’s poll that has been characterised by tension and high-wire politics

After months of political intrigues, it is a deciding weekend for the people of Edo as eligible voters in the state file out tomorrow to elect a successor to Governor Godwin Obaseki in what promises to be a stiff contest given the strength of the political parties and their candidates.

A total of 2,249,780 (85.57 per cent) out of 2,629,025 registered voters in the state collected their Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) ahead of the election.

These eligible voters will cast their votes in 4,519 polling units across 18 local government areas of the state. Seventeen candidates are contesting the election, with one of them a female.

The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state is fielding Asue Ighodalo, while the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) has Senator Monday Okpebholo, as its candidate.

Also in the race are Olumide Akpata of Labour Party (LP), Iyere Kennedy (Accord – A), Tom Iseghohi (Action Alliance – AA), David Oberaifo (African Action Congress – AAC), Osarenren Izedonmwen (African Democratic Congress – ADC), Kingson Akhimie (Action Democratic Party – ADP), Osifo Isaiah (All Progressives Grand Alliance – APGA) and Ugiagbe Sylvester (Allied Peoples Movement – APM). Others are Amos Osalumese (Action Peoples Party – APP), Osiriame Edeipo (Booth Party – BP), Olumide Akpata (Labour Party – LP), Friday Azena (New Nigeria Peoples Party – NNPP), Ndidi Patience (Peoples Redemption Party – PRP), Anerua Aliu (Social Democratic Party – SDP), Okungbowa Ovbokhan (Young Progressives Party – YPP) and Akhalamhe Amiemenoghena (Zenith Labour Party – ZLP).

Three-horse race

Despite the number of candidates, bookmakers say the election is a threehorse race between Ighodalo of the PDP, Okpebholo of APC and Akpata of LP. This conviction is predicated on the strength of the respective candidates and their party’s structure in the South-South state that prides itself as “The Heartbeat of the Nation.”

Ighodalo, a lawyer from Okaigben, Ewohimi, Esan South East Local Government Area, has an enviable profile. He is a former chairman of Sterling Bank; ex-director at the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) and onetime chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

Okpebholo is the senator representing Edo Central Senatorial District in the 10th National Assembly, while Akpata is a former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). On the strength of the parties, the PDP is the ruling party in Edo State; APC is in control of the Federal Government, while LP has become the third force in the nation’s political equation.

Whereas the PDP and APC have ruled the state in turn since the advent of the present Fourth Republic, LP became a major political force after its appreciable outing in the 2023 general election. The rating of the leading candidates notwithstanding, some analysts believe that any of the candidates of the so-called lesser parties could pull a surprise given that politics is a game of the possible.

Tensed build-up

The build-up to the election was not a tea party. It was characterised by tension given the bitter campaigns ran by the various parties and their candidates. Name-calling dominated the campaign period rather than debate on issues.

As it stands, there are signs that tomorrow’s election will not be a departure from previous gubernatorial contests in the state that were keenly contested. It is against this backdrop that the contest has been described by political analysts as “mother of all battles.”

The PDP’s refusal to sign the Peace Accord for the election, Governor Obaseki’s description the poll as a do or die as well as claims and counter-claims of rigging plots by the various political parties speak volume on what to expect.

High stakes

No doubt, the stakes are high as the outcome of the poll will transcend Edo State. To some political pundits, the Edo State governorship election is a prelude to the 2027 general election.

For the PDP, the outcome of the poll will not only determine its future but the party’s dominance in the politics of South-South geopolitical zone. At the moment, the PDP controls the five out of the six states of the zone.

They are Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Rivers, while Cross River is controlled by the APC. A win for the PDP means consolidation of its grip on the oil-rich zone, while a loss will diminish the party’s electoral value in the area ahead of the next general election.

For the APC, a win will see it regaining power in the state after outgoing Governor Obaseki, who was elected on its platform in his first term during the 2016 election defected to the PDP and was reelected in the 2020 poll.

A loss will however dim the party’s bid to improve on its electoral fortune not only in Edo State but the South-South zone. LP, on its part, will increase the number of states under its control to two if it wins the election. The party won Abia State in the 2023 elections.

Proxy war

Besides what the election means for the leading political parties, it is a proxy war between Governor Obaseki and his predecessor, Senator Adams Oshiomhole. To this end, the outcome of the poll will ultimately resolve the supremacy and acceptability battle between the duo.

Obaseki single-handedly anointed Igbodalo as the candidate of PDP, while Oshiomhole, who was instrumental to the outgoing governor’s emergence in 2016 before they fell out in 2020, is behind APC’s Okpebholo.

No doubt eyes are on Obaseki and Oshiomhole, but some analysts are of the view that it will amount to political gamble if their anointed candidates and respective parties rely on the same political variables that determined the outcome of the 2020 governorship election in the state.

Edo politics has witnessed realignment of forces since then and it is against this backdrop that there is enthusiasm among the electorate as they go the polls tomorrow. To some people in the state, Obaseki has performed well in the last seven and half years he has been in power and as a result, victory for Okpebholo will ensure sustenance of his policies and programmes.

Those who hold this view say the governor’s achievements in infrastructural development and the education sector are enough to guarantee his party victory. But, there are members of another political school in the state, who believe that the governor and his party have performed badly and are therefore beatable.

This political school also believes that Obaseki has made a mockery of governance and that victory for his anointed candidate is not envisaged.

No doubt, the three leading candidates – Igbodalo, Okpeholo and Akpata can match each other strength for strength, but to most indigenes and residents of the Edo State, personality and antecedent, not party structure or financial strength will determine who wins the election.