Personalities, Factors That Will Shape Edo Guber Election

History, no doubt, would be made tomorrow, when Edo electorate file out to elect the next governor of the state as all appear set for the race for the number one seat at the Dennis Osadebay Avenue government house, Benin City.

In the last two months, there has been glaring evidence of fear due to drumbeats of war and violent attacks during the campaigns by the various political parties, especially, among members of the three major political parties – the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC) that is in charge at the federal level and Labour Party (LP).

Interestingly, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security agencies seem awake to their constitutional roles given deployment of their seeming best hands to ensure a hitch-free election.

While the cloudy atmosphere of uncertainty has died down as the cacophony of voices from campaign drumbeats momentarily cease given the parties’ conclusion of campaign in adherence to set guidelines as spelt out by the Electoral Act, analysts are of the view that the campaign for tomorrow’s election remains the most fierce in Edo State.

More worrying is the dangerous power play that had characterised the terrain before and during the primary elections of the APC and PDP as well as other parties. This is because of the political terrain and familiar actors out to undue each other.

Obaseki, Oshiomhole factor

At the epicenter of the royal rumble for the soul of Edo are interests and forces. Edo was before now an APC state until the dramatic edging out of the incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki, towards the end of his first term in office.

Both Obaseki and his estranged close political godfather and predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole, fell apart over contentious issues bothering on running of affairs of the state.

No doubt, Oshiomhole and his supporters are not sparing anything to seek their pound of flesh from Obaseki for willful political betrayal and ingratitude; it is evident that never in the political history of the state had one witnessed the rage that is currently being displayed in the state.

The barrage of vicious verbal and physical attacks evidenced during the campaigns is enough testimony of what is to be expected if not managed during the poll. Oshiomhole’s apostles, who claim to have made costly commitment towards Obaseki’s emergence in 2016, still reel in pains and anguish of slight and neglect by the outgoing governor.

But, Obaseki, who maintained his ground, while the supremacy battle between him and Oshiomhole lasted appears unshaken in the face of the bid by the APC to turn the political table against him and his anointed candidate – Asue Ighodalo. The optimism of both camps, notwithstanding, several factors will not only shape the poll but determine where the pendulum will swing to at the end of the day.

The godfathers

This year’s governorship contest in Edo State is an interesting political episode. It is epochal Governor Obaseki is seen to have dared political godfathers who either bankrolled his ambition to ascend to the number one seat and have in the process bitten the fingers that fed him. To this end, Obaseki is faced with an uphill task of installing his successor.

To core stakeholders and political godfathers in the state, it is believed that the governor has not done enough to meet the expectations of Edo people. This is assumption is seen to have been worsened by the governor’s frontal attacks on perceived enemies or opposition groups and persons.

Again, the governor’s strained relationship with some chieftains of his own party is another factor driving the “PDP Must Go” singsong and campaign. Obaseki is not seeking re-election but eggheads within the PDP are unrepentant about working against Igbodalo in the election given his relationship with the outgoing governor.

Benin Traditional Council (BNC)

The Benin palace remains a powerful tool in the politics and governance of the state. It is on record that no one ascends to power at whatever level without the input and influence of the revered monarch of Benin Kingdom.

The Benin kingdom has a rich culture as well as tradition, and the power, influence and actions of the Oba is most sacrosanct and must be respected to the letter. No one dares the palace and gets scot free.

Oba Ewuare 11, who is the 46th on the revered throne, has been an epitome of peace and exemplary leadership that draws global and national attention. Therefore, as the chairman of Edo State Council of Traditional Rulers, the monarch plays a big role in the politics of Edo State.

It is therefore an inconvertible fact that whoever has the blessing of the Benin palace among the governorship candidates stands as better chance of winning poll as the Oba’s words and body language are seen as the stand of the gods and ancestors of the land.

It holds therefore that whatever the Oba says is final and his subjects drawn from across the seven local government areas in Edo South Senatorial District will toe the path and words of the monarch which are usually coordinated through the Enigies or Dukes and other top chiefs in the various domains within the communities where they preside on behalf of the royal palace.

Edo political tripod

It has been pain in the hearts of key political actors from Edo Central on how the senatorial district with five local governments has been subjected to a mere bride of the other two senatorial districts – Edo South and Edo North.

Obaseki was said to have towards the middle of his first tenure, entered into an unwritten agreement with the Esan people in Edo Central to support his government, so that at the end of his second term, the zone will product the next governor of the state.

Aside late Prof. Ambrose Alli and Prof, Oserheimen Osunbor’s brief stint of 18 months in office as governor under the PDP, it has always been the Edo South and Edo North taking turns when it comes to the governorship of Edo State.

This, perhaps, explains the insistence on a zoning arrangement that will see power shifting to Edo Central by most stakeholders in the state. It was in line with this clamour that the PDP and APC looked towards Edo Central in the choice of their respective candidates.

Federal might

While the APC-led Federal Government under President Bola Tinubu seems to be doing everything possible to retrieve back the crown it lost in Edo State due to internal wrangling within its fold during the 2020 election, the PDP, having bounced back in the state is likely not to let power slip off its hold after years out of power.

This explains why reasons for the war of attrition are not farfetched. Edo is strategic to both parties. At the moment, there is heavy deployment of soldiers and personnel of other security agencies by the federal government.

Indications point to the fact that APC is gradually losing its grip to power in some states across the country as a result worsening living conditions, and as a result, is out to regain control of Edo at all cost, but PDP eggheads are poised for a showdown.