IMF 2024 annual meetings takes centre stage, as NBS releases economic data

2 hours ago 14

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual spring meeting will lead the centre stage for pressing global economic discussions starting today. Among these discussions will include conversations about Africa and Nigeria.

Meanwhile, locally, Nigeria is expected to release key reports such as the Selected Food Price Report, Transport Fare Watch, and Federation Account Allocation Committee Report.

“High inflation continues to undermine growth in many parts of the world, and Africa is no exception.”

Monday, October 21

IMF begins 2024 annual meetings

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) will begin the 2024 annual meetings of the boards of governors today.

These meetings will provide platforms for critical conversations about Africa’s role in shaping the global economy.
The first major theme of the meetings will centre on maintaining economic and financial stability, the ability to balance short-term economic pressures with long-term investments in people and infrastructure, as well as fighting inflation and safeguarding financial stability.

High inflation continues to undermine growth in many parts of the world, and Africa is no exception. Nigeria’s persistent battle with inflation reignited, surging to 32.70 percent in September, a sharp reversal from the two-month decline witnessed earlier on the petrol price hike.

“According to the IMF, Sub-Saharan Africa urgently needs to create jobs for its growing population, especially in fragile and low-income countries.”

The surge in petrol prices is a result of some of the reforms taken by the Nigerian president, which include the removal of petrol subsidies and unification of the FX.

Though painful, Indermit Gill, senior vice president of the of the World Bank Group, said at the 30th National Economic Summit that Nigeria must maintain its ongoing economic forms for the next 10 to 15 years to establish itself as a leading economic power, not only in sub-Saharan Africa but also on the global stage.

Gill explained that the reforms were unavoidable because it was an unsustainable burden for the government. He stressed the need for economic freedom, which he said should extend to investment in education that can lead to many skilled workers that could work in the country as well as other countries.

Conversations around these topics will continue at the IMF meetings this week, and here are some sessions to look out for:

Creating jobs for young people

On Monday, an analytical session themed ‘The Clock is Ticking: Meeting Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urgent Job Creation Challenge’ will be held.

According to the IMF, Sub-Saharan Africa urgently needs to create jobs for its growing population, especially in fragile and low-income countries.

It said that the three main challenges must be tackled: transforming informality, addressing firm growth barriers, and accelerating structural transformation.

Africa’s most populous country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, up from 5.0 percent in Q3 2023.

For example, The World Bank recently stated in its report that Nigeria’s recent hike in the minimum wage will only benefit a limited segment of the population, impacting just 4.1 percent of working-age Nigerians.

This is as 84 percent of Nigeria’s working-class population is self-employed in the first quarter of 2024.

The World Bank said that addressing poverty requires more than employment expansion, stressing the need for productive jobs that provide sustainable livelihoods.

One of the focus of the discussion will be on Africa’s capacity to lead in the 21st century, where its abundant young workforce meets the capital-rich, ageing economies of the developed world.

According to the IMF, over the next decade, 1.2 billion young people across emerging and developing countries will come of working age. Yet only 400 million jobs will be created.

Harnessing renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa

On Tuesday, another critical conversation will be held on how to harness renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa. The theme of the conversation is “Barriers, Reforms, and Economic Prospects.”

The international body advises that Sub-Saharan Africa needs to increase its electricity production. “Leveraging renewable energy, supported by climate finance and policy reforms, can boost both power generation and GDP.”

Nigeria clings desperately to fossil fuels while millions of its citizens live in darkness. Despite being an oil giant, a staggering 43 percent of the population lacks access to electricity.

However, the Nigerian government aims to solve this by providing access to over 90 percent of the population, with renewable energy projected to account for more than 30 percent of generation by 2030.

To do this, experts in the energy sector have said that the government must provide a stable, transparent regulatory environment to encourage investments in gas production, infrastructure, power generation, transmission, distribution, and metering.

Agriculture and food as an engine of sustainable growth and jobs

The global agriculture and food system can do more than just feed a growing population—it holds immense potential as a driver of growth and job creation.

However, to unlock this potential for the long term, the agrifood system needs to prioritise nutrition, climate resilience, and halting environmental degradation.

This flagship event at the World Bank Annual Meetings 2024 will explore how governments and businesses can lead this transformation.

Some other global discussions to look out for include Monetary Policy in a Shock-Prone World, Foreign Direct Investment: New Evidence on Future Directions, and Where is Japan on Inflation and Monetary Policy? Among several others.

Monday, October 21

NBS to release selected food prices watch

The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release selected food prices for September today.

Food inflation, a significant driver of overall inflation, increased to 37.77 percent in September, up from 37.52 percent in August 2024, and also higher than 30.64 percent recorded last September.

“The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items: Guinea corn, rice, maize, grains, beans, bread, yam, water yam, cassava tuber, potatoes, local and foreign beer, and vegetable oil, palm oil, etc.”
It, however, attributed the fall on a monthly basis to the decline in the rate of increase in the average prices of beef, gizzard, dried beef, Lipton, Milo, Bournvita, and milk, eggs, etc. (milk, cheese, and eggs).

NBS to release transport fare watch

The National Bureau of Statistics will be releasing the average fare paid by commuters on bus journeys, okada drops, and air travels for September on Monday.

According to the bureau, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journeys within the city per drop decreased by 7.77 percent from N942.61 in July 2024 to N869.35 in August 2024.

On a year-on-year basis, it declined by 34.95 percent from N1,336.38 in August 2023.

Moreover, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journey intercity per drop was N7,159.00 in August 2024, indicating an increase of 0.59 percent on a month-on-month basis compared to N7,117.17 in July 2024.

For air travel, the average fare paid by air passengers for specified routes for a single journey was N123,700.14 in August 2024, showing an increase of 25.51 percent compared to the previous month.

On a year-on-year basis, the fare rose by 56.56 percent from N79,011.38 in August 2023.

With the rise in pump price from N597.00 to N855.00., transport fares have more than doubled, putting transport cost during August till now at a potentially high price.

Wednesday, October 23

Bank of Canada to cut interest rate

The National Bank of Canada is expected to cut its interest rates at its rate decision meeting on Wednesday.
With the inflation rate falling below the bank’s target of 2 percent, experts expect the bank to cut the rates by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent at the meeting.

For the first time in more than three years, Canada’s annual headline inflation slowed more than expected to 1.6 percent in September, driven by an 8.3 percent decline in energy prices.

Stéfane Marion, chief economist and strategist at the National Bank of Canada, told Bloomberg that the central bank’s goal is to bring the policy rate, currently at 4.25 percent, to a neutral rate, which is closer to 3 percent.

Thursday, October 24

NBS to release FAAC report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the Federation Account Allocation Committee report for September.
According to the most recent data by NBS, the FAAC disbursed the sum of N2.68 trillion to the three tiers of government in July 2024 from the total revenue generated in June 2024.

The Federal Government received a total of N459.78 billion, states and local governments received a total of N461.98 billion and N337.02 billion, respectively, while the sum of N95.60 billion was shared among the oil-producing states.

A further breakdown of revenue allocation distribution to the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) revealed that a total net amount of N319.49 billion was disbursed to the FGN consolidated revenue account, while N7.19 billion was received as a share of derivation and ecology, N3.60 billion as a stabilisation fund, N12.08 billion for the development of natural resources, and N12.34 billion to the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja.

The Federation Account Allocation Committee disburses allocations from the revenues generated into the Federation’s accounts into different sectors.

Source