Federal might, Edo politics and jubilations in Akwa Ibom

Many Nigerians had never heard of the expression “federal might” as an important factor in gubernatorial elections until Governor Godwin Obaseki started talking about it in the weeks leading to the September 21 election in his state. He told the press that Senator Adams Oshiomhole and other APC stalwarts in the state were planning to rig the election and impose their candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, on the state using “Federal Might.” Okpebholo won the election, polling 291,667 votes to beat Obaseki’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, who got 247,274 votes, and the Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata, who received a paltry 22,763 votes. But did Federal Might play a role in the APC’s victory? Perhaps. I have participated in three governorship elections in Akwa Ibom State as a communications strategist, and I have seen firsthand how politicians crave the use of Federal Might to secure victory. This article is therefore based on my personal experiences.

Federal might is the deployment of federal resources, especially the security forces, to intimidate and harass opponents in order to create a favourable environment for the preferred party to rig the election, often with the collusion of INEC. To procure Federal Might, an influential political figure in Abuja must give orders to the Inspector General of Police and/or the Army Chief to deploy an excessive number of policemen and soldiers to the affected state, with specific instructions to cow the opposition politicians and arrest some if need be. Federal Might also involves INEC colluding with one party to the disadvantage of the others. Federal might is therefore more valuable to a politician, especially those seeking to defeat a strong incumbent, than any other support they can get.

“To procure Federal Might, an influential political figure in Abuja must give orders to the Inspector General of Police and/or the Army Chief to deploy an excessive number of policemen and soldiers to the affected state, with specific instructions to cow the opposition politicians and arrest some if need be.”

There are a few signs of the presence of Federal Might during an election. As soon as the policemen or “federal forces” arrive in the state to be captured, the leader of the command, typically an Assistant Inspector General (AIG), will establish contact with the preferred governorship candidate. His first order of business is usually to arrest selected members of the opposition. The arrested men are typically influential leaders who command the respect of their party members. To create maximum impact, the arrests happen at night, and the individuals are whisked off to Abuja before dawn. This creates considerable embarrassment and trauma for the governor and rank-and-file members of the affected party.

The detention of some PDP henchmen, including local government chairmen in Edo, by the police in Abuja was an unmistakable early signal that Federal Might was being activated prior to the election. Despite Governor Obaseki’s cries and Asue Ighodalo’s lamentations, the police did not explain the rationale for the arrests, and no charges have been brought against them to date.

Another sign of federal might is the disposition of the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC). If the REC is newly posted to the state just before the election or has been found to be too friendly with members of one party, and INEC refuses to redeploy him out of the state despite pleas from the opposing party, then Federal Might is suspected. For some time, the PDP in Edo State had asked INEC to transfer the REC, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, out of the state because he is a cousin of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike. Wike, a PDP member, helped the APC win the presidential election in Rivers State and, as a reward, is now serving in the APC-controlled federal government. This connection was enough reason to expect bias, but INEC refused to budge, with the REC arguing that his family relationship with Wike would not cloud his sense of duty. By refusing to move the REC from Edo, INEC failed to give all parties a sense of fairness and the appearance of a level playing field. An umpire, like a football referee, must be fair and seen to be unbiased in all respects.

A REC is the number one electoral official in the state, and if he decides to work against you in any election, you’d be swimming against the currents, and the chance of a loss is greater than 90 percent. An unconscionable REC has an arsenal of weapons he can use against a party he dislikes. For example, he can substitute genuine result sheets with fake ones, instigate late arrival of voting materials in some areas to suppress voting, and even blatantly facilitate forgery at the collation centres. Even after the election, a REC can frustrate aggrieved parties from accessing the voting materials in preparation for litigation. I saw that play out in 2015 and 2019 in Akwa Ibom. However, to succeed in these wicked schemes, the REC must have the cooperation of the Electoral Officers (EOs), who are the chief superintendents of elections at the local government level.

In the 2015 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State, we had a REC who was openly biassed against one of the two major parties. It was the most flagrant case of bias by a senior electoral official ever recorded. The REC eventually retired from INEC into stupendous wealth. In Edo State, the PDP is currently complaining that some of the results announced at the State Collation Centre in Benin are different from what was uploaded on INEC’s iREV portal. That’s a very serious allegation that challenges the integrity of INEC.

The 2019 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State was an eye-opener on how Federal Might could work or fail. In August 2018, Senator Godswill Akpabio decamped to the APC from the PDP, giving his new party’s members and supporters assurances that he would flip the state. We can all recall the infamous “Warsaw saw war” statement, which further fuelled tensions and frightened the PDP and the state government. At a stakeholders’ meeting of the PDP in the Government House, a crestfallen member reportedly asked the governor, “Your Excellency, we don’t have INEC; we don’t have the police; what are we going to do?” It was a poignant question for a party that had controlled the centre for 16 years and understood the importance of Federal Might.

The governor, Mr Udom Emmanuel, seeking reelection, appeared beleaguered, cowed, and insecure, but he was very clever. While his party, the PDP, was campaigning hard, going from village to village, APC members were engrossed in endless meetings, planning and waiting for the arrival of Federal Might. Additionally, the APC lacked the cohesion and stamina required to mount an effective assault against the PDP, which had governed the state since 1999. The arrival of Akpabio became an Achilles’ heel for the APC, as some members’ resentment towards him was beginning to sap the party of its mojo. Amidst the tensions in the state, with anger in the APC and frustration in the PDP, the governor quietly sneaked into Abuja and struck a deal with key figures in Aso Rock, including the then Chief of Staff to the President, who received a huge erosion-control contract from the state government in exchange for support for the governor and his party. It was a masterstroke. With that, the table turned against the APC in the state. Their cries for the redeployment of the REC, Mike Igini, who had appeared pro-PDP, and their requests for support from the police and army were completely ignored by Abuja. No Federal Might was forthcoming, and, of course, the APC lost the election woefully. Party members began to blame President Buhari for not helping with the expected “Federal might.” There’s no name they did not call Buhari.

Now, with the victory of the APC in Edo over the weekend, APC members in Akwa Ibom State were once again jubilant, hoping that there is now a better chance for Federal Might in 2027. “Buhari did not care about the party in our state, but Asiwaju understands the game,” an APC chieftain told me after sharing a video of Akpabio and others dancing in Benin. Really? I told him that there are other circumstances that played out in Edo that may not happen in Akwa Ibom in 2027. For one, Obaseki’s fight with the powerful Oba of Benin and his meanness toward his erstwhile deputy, Philip Shuaibu, were not helpful.